Nvidia: We Maintain Our $480 Fair Value Estimate Despite Tighter U.S. Restrictions

We maintain our $480 fair value estimate for wide-moat Nvidia despite an announcement by the U.S. Department of Commerce that will further restrict the shipment of various semiconductors and related equipment into China. This policy will likely include a portion of Nvidia’s fast-growing business of selling graphics processing units into data centers for artificial intelligence. As of now, we think the restrictions will at worst provide some modest long-term headwinds to Nvidia’s exponential growth; they will not be a death blow. We reiterate our Very High Uncertainty Rating, as Nvidia’s valuation will hinge on the nascent and skyrocketing AI GPU end market.