Tesla: Q3 Deliveries Came in Below Market Expectations

Tesla announced third-quarter deliveries of just over 435,000 vehicles, down sequentially from the roughly 466,000 vehicles delivered in the second quarter. Management attributed the lower volumes to planned downtimes for factory upgrades, which is consistent with the company's reduced production during the quarter of a little over 430,000 vehicles. Through the first three quarters of 2023, Tesla has delivered over 1.3 million vehicles, and we think Tesla remains on track to meet our 2023 deliveries forecast of 1.8 million vehicles. Accordingly, we see no reason to change our $215 per share fair value estimate for Tesla. Our narrow-moat rating is also unchanged.