Intuit Investor Day: We Like Its Big Bets on the Small-Business Ecosystem; Shares Fairly Valued

Intuit hosted its investor day today, stressing five big bets that are informing the firm’s long-term strategic moves. Of the big bets, we think Intuit’s wagers on being the center of small-business growth and disrupting the small-business midmarket are the most compelling and promising to fuel growth ahead. Additionally, we continue to be impressed by Intuit’s ability to innovate internally as well as make smart acquisitions, which we believe are further strengthening Intuit’s already wide moat. Milestones highlighted through the day’s events (like customer retention uplift for customers using newer offerings like QuickBooks Live) keep us reassured in what we believe to be a rosy trajectory for Intuit. Intuit marked its total addressable market at $312 billion, which implies 5% penetration thus far and, unsurprisingly, Intuit reiterated fiscal 2024 guidance given last month with fourth-quarter results, leaving our financial model unchanged. As a result, we are maintaining our $500 fair value estimate, which leaves Intuit shares fairly valued.