Wynn Macau Earnings: Solid Recovery Across Segments, Further Uptick Into Third Quarter

Wynn Macau’s decent second-quarter sales recovery was largely in line with industry performance, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA reaching 66% and 72% of 2019 levels, despite renovation closures at its peninsula property. Management indicated further uptick across segments into the third quarter, with daily mass gaming volume in July 20% higher than 2019 levels, along with robust hotel occupancy and healthy retail sales. With transportation capacity continuing to recover, we expect Wynn Macau to extend this robust growth momentum in the second half. We have raised our 2023-25 forecasts for revenue by 9%-15% and for adjusted EBITDA by 7%-24% after lifting our 2023 industry gross gaming revenue, or GGR, to MOP 181 billion, or 62% of 2019 levels (up from 50% previously), as well as a higher nongaming revenue assumption. Meanwhile, we have already anticipated normalization of GGR in our longer-term profit forecasts during 2026-27. Accordingly, we have raised our fair value estimate for Wynn Macau to HKD 9.20 per share from HKD 8.60.