Novo Nordisk: Wegovy’s Cardiovascular Benefit Is Confirmed, Consistent With Our Expectations

We’re maintaining our DKK 900/$130 fair value estimates for Novo Nordisk following additional positive data on the cardiovascular benefits of the semaglutide molecule that extend beyond diabetes and into obesity. Long-term use of Wegovy in obese or overweight patients with cardiovascular disease (but not diabetes) showed a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (like heart attack or stroke) relative to patients taking placebo. Novo expects to file to add this to Wegovy’s prescribing labels this year. We think these positive results could be driven by a combination of weight loss, improved lipid and blood sugar levels, and improved blood pressure. GLP-1-targeting drugs have already generated positive cardiovascular outcomes data in the past in diabetes patients, including Novo’s Ozempic (26% risk reduction), and we expect additional data to come from Novo’s oral diabetes drug Rybelsus (2024) and from Lilly’s Mounjaro in two studies: against Trulicity in overweight or obese patients with diabetes (data in 2024) and against placebo in overweight or obese patients without diabetes (data in 2027). Positive cardiovascular data supports Novo Nordisk’s wide moat in cardiometabolic diseases, although we will be more comfortable once we see phase 3 data from the firm’s combination drug cagrisema, as much of Novo’s valuation is wrapped up in semaglutide.