James Hardie Earnings: Fair Value Estimate Up With Stronger Outlook and Weaker Australian Dollar

We increase our fair value estimate for wide-moat James Hardie by 13% to AUD 43 per share following a stronger-than-expected fiscal 2024 first-quarter result. About half of the increase reflects the lower Australian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate, now 0.65 versus 0.69 previously. The remainder reflects modestly stronger near- and longer-term margins in the United States and a less severe medium-term volume downturn, since the housing market is holding up better than we expected in early 2023.