Tyson: Near-Term Headwinds Stem From Commoditized Meats, but Better Conditions Will Restore Margins

We are lowering our fair value estimate for Tyson Foods to $85 from $96, which implies a 36 times 2024 EPS multiple and an enterprise value to 2024 adjusted EBITDA of 13 times. Multiples are elevated due to depressed earnings from near-term headwinds. The decrease comes mostly from a more gradual recovery from near-term headwinds than we previously forecast. This includes a top-line growth rate of about 2.3% per year, down from 2.5%, as well as a more gradual recovery to our midcycle 7.5% operating margin forecast.