Nutrien Earnings: Shares Dive on Falling Fertilizer Prices and Profits

We reduce our Nutrien fair value estimate to $70 (CAD 94) per share from $80 (CAD 107) after updating our model to incorporate the company's first-quarter results as well as our outlook for lower near-term fertilizer prices. Our narrow moat rating is unchanged. Nutrien shares were down 6% at the time of writing on management's guidance cuts as falling fertilizer prices caused management to cut adjusted EPS guidance over 30% at the midpoint. At current prices, we view Nutrien as slightly undervalued with shares trading around 15% below our updated fair value estimate.