BNP Paribas Earnings: Solid Results With no Signs of U.S. Contagion

BNP Paribas reported a rather messy quarter with several restatements. Normalised earnings increased by 55% year on year and 33% compared with the final quarter of 2022. Helpfully, BNP Paribas included some slides in its presentation highlighting its solid liquidity and limited exposure to commercial real estate. BNP Paribas did indicate that it expects to exceed its guidance for revenue, earnings, and profitability over the next three years. In a further sign of confidence, it confirmed that it would execute a EUR 5 billion (7% of its current market value) share buyback in two equal tranches this year. We expect to increase our fair value estimate of EUR 67 by more than 10% after incorporating the results into our model.