Heineken: Another Strong Quarter of Price/Mix

Heineken reported another strong performance in its first-quarter trading update. Organic beer volume and revenue increased 3.0% and 8.9%, respectively, a whisker below our forecasts. We have lowered our full-year volume forecasts for Africa and Asia, but this has no impact on our EUR 96 fair value estimate. With the shares trading around 7% above this as of early trading on April 19, we regard Heineken as being fully priced, but we recognize that with volume fairly robust in the face of large price increases, the company is likely to prove a defensive investment in the event of weakening consumer sentiment.