China Jinmao Delivered Mixed 2022 Results, but Property Market Has Troughed; FVE Raised

China Jinmao’s 2022 results are largely in line with our estimates except for the bottom line, which fell short due to higher minority interests than we assumed. While the good news is that we’re only making minor adjustments to our 2023-25 revenue and operating profit forecasts, we factor in the higher minority interest leading to lower attributable earnings. The company is guiding for stronger cash flow from property sales of CNY 98.9 billion, which is around 8% above our prior forecast. However, given lower booked sales in 2022, we now expect revenue to decline 4.4% in 2023 leading to flat EPS. That said, we expect a much stronger recovery in 2024 as confidence returns to the real estate market in China and as excess inventory is absorbed. We raise our fair value estimate to HKD 2.40 from HKD 2.26.