Narrow-Moat Amadeus' Demand Flying Higher in 2023, Aided by Customer Upsell and Volume Recovery

Narrow-moat Amadeus’ 2022 results and 2023 outlook were ahead of expectations, as an unfavorable change in Russian law was more than offset by new business and demand recovery. We plan to lift our EUR 60 fair value estimate by a low-single-digit percentage, leaving the shares slightly undervalued. Narrow-moat Sabre trades at a larger discount to our $10.50 fair value estimate but will likely require patience, given its Very High Uncertainty Rating (versus High for Amadeus) and larger 2023 headwind from the decommissioned Russia business.