The Mosaic Co

MOS: XNYS (USA)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	$67.00	Mbbb	Kcmztwck

Reducing Mosaic FVE to $40 on Lower Near-Term Outlook; Shares Slightly Overvalued

Seth Goldstein

Feb 23, 2023

After updating our Mosaic model to incorporate the company's fourth-quarter earnings, we reduce our fair value estimate to $40 per share from $44. The reduction is driven by our outlook for lower phosphate prices and reduced Mosaic Fertilizantes segment profits in 2023 versus our previous forecast. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. At current prices, we view Mosaic shares as overvalued, with the stock trading more than 25% above our updated fair value estimate.

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