Maersk Enters the Squall, but Remains in Good Shape

Despite headlines of “profit plunges” for Maersk, reported in media such as the Financial Times, its shares were up a touch on Feb. 8 as investors digested full-year numbers from the shipping giant. After the feast usually comes the famine, and Maersk’s EBITDA guidance for 2023 is certainly a deterioration from the heights of 2022. However, management’s belief that inventory corrections should be complete by the end of first-half 2023 provides an incentive for investors, who may have believed that 2023 was a write-off. With the numbers largely baked into our existing forecasts we do not expect this to alter our contrarian view on the stock. We see recent share price declines as an overreaction, and view the shares as being an attractive proposition on a risk/reward basis. We reiterate our DKK 26,500 fair value estimate.