Maintaining Our Amgen FVE Following In-Line Q4; Horizon Acquisition and Pipeline Key to Growth

We’re maintaining our $255 fair value estimate for Amgen following fourth-quarter results that showed solid cost controls but significant continued pricing pressure on several of the firm’s franchises. We think the pending Horizon Therapeutics acquisition will boost Amgen’s immunology business at a time when the firm’s pricing power is fading for several of its key branded and biosimilar products. Between in-house pipeline progress and acquired products, we think Amgen is positioned to maintain a solid, diversified portfolio in the long run, warranting a wide moat rating. That said, we’re still waiting for data for key pipeline products in cardiometabolic disease and Horizon’s thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza before assuming Amgen can avoid a slight dip into negative growth territory when Prolia faces biosimilar competition (likely in 2025).