MPLX's Q4 Wraps Up Efficient and Solid 2022; More of the Same Ahead in 2023

MPLX’s reliability was once again on display in fourth-quarter results with solid volumes. EBITDA of $5.8 billion for all of 2022 was slightly ahead of our $5.7 billion expectation but is tracking toward our 2023 forecast of $6 billion. With largely stable volumes (terminals pipeline throughout was flat year over year), the focus continues to be on capital returns. The partnership boosted its distribution 10% in 2022 and bought back $491 million in units, one of the larger buybacks in our U.S. midstream coverage. We expect to maintain our fair value estimate and narrow moat rating.