Lowering Gas-Weighted E&P Fair Value Estimates After Near-Term Price True-Up

U.S. natural gas prices have tumbled by more than half in the last month alone, following a long spell of unseasonably warm weather across much of the Lower 48. That more than offsets the 30% surge in prices that occurred after our October updates on exploration and production, or E&P, companies, when the Henry Hub spot price climbed from $5.30/mmbtu to over $7/mmbtu given more wintry conditions across much of the U.S. northeast and Midwest. As of Jan. 27, the benchmark had dipped below our long-term midcycle natural gas forecast ($3.30/mcf) and was most recently trading under $3/mmbtu.