Solid Fiscal First Quarter Means Rockwell Bucks Recessionary Trends; We Raise FVE

Nothing in wide-moat-rated Rockwell Automation's latest results materially alters our long-term view of the firm. We lift our fair value estimate to $310 from $306, due to time value of money (slightly offset by a higher share repurchase price assumption). Despite the full-year guidance increase, which we now incorporate in our model, we aren't making meaningful changes to our long-term assumptions, as we think the revisions mostly affect the timing of cash flows. Over the long run, we still expect strong mid-single-digit organic growth, coupled with a 1% contribution from acquisitions. We now expect $8.7 billion of full-year 2023 sales (versus $8.5 billion previously), and $11.11 of adjusted EPS (versus $10.77 previously), around the midpoint of the revised guide.