Travelers' Fourth Quarter Hit by Winter Storms

Travelers disclosed some preliminary fourth-quarter results that suggest a somewhat weak quarter. Catastrophe losses appear to be the main culprit, with the company expecting $459 million in catastrophe losses in the quarter, primarily from winter storms in late December 2022. Outside of that, Travelers provided some limited commentary that suggests underlying trends remain in place, with commercial lines enjoying strong underwriting conditions, and personal lines remaining challenged by negative claims trends. We don’t see anything in these numbers to meaningfully alter our long-term view of the narrow-moat company, and we maintain our $194 fair value estimate.