Pfizer Highlights Pipeline to Address Post-2025 Patent Cliff, as Long-Term Growth Concerns Linger

Pfizer hosted an investor event focused on near-term pipeline launches, and while we tweaked the Pfizer valuation model, we are not making any changes to our fair value estimate. The event tackled a key concern around Pfizer’s growth potential between 2025 and 2030 due to major patent losses in this period, including immunology drug Xeljanz, cardiology drug Eliquis, and cancer drug Ibrance, collectively totaling close to $14 billion in 2021 sales. While we believe Pfizer remains well-positioned to offset these patent losses with next-generation pipeline drugs (a core element of the firm’s wide moat), we are skeptical of management’s 2030 guidance.