Strong Streaming Growth Not Enough Overcome Q3 Linear Weakness at AMC; Lowering FVE to $30

AMC posted yet another weak quarter as third-quarter revenue fell 16% because of continued weak ad and affiliate revenue. As a result, management lowered full-year guidance of flat to low-single-digit top-line growth versus low-single digits previously and free cash flow to be breakeven to $50 million versus the prior target of $100 million. We are less optimistic than management and now project a decline in the 2022 top line with another drop in 2023 due to a continued weak ad market, cord-cutting, foreign-exchange headwinds, and slower streaming growth. Thus, we are lowering our fair value estimate to $30 from $51.