No Surprises in Oshkosh's Q3 Results, and Management Reaffirms 2022 Guidance

Oshkosh’s third-quarter results were roughly in line with our expectations, leading us to leave our $107 fair value estimate unchanged. We made slight downward tweaks to our near-term forecast, but this was offset by the time value of money since our last update. Management reaffirmed guidance for sales of $8.1 billion-$8.6 billion in 2022 versus our forecast of $8.2 billion. Our estimate is below the midpoint largely because of the company’s ongoing challenges in the supply chain. The company had already cut 2022 EPS guidance to $3.50 from the $5-$6 it gave in the second quarter. The key callouts at the time were rising cost inflation and manufacturing inefficiencies. We see these factors affecting the company through the remainder of 2022.