Biogen/Eisai's Strong Lecanemab Data Raise Prospects for Nascent Alzheimer's Market

We've raised our Biogen fair value estimate to $330 from $305 following lecanemab's strong phase 3 data in Alzheimer’s disease. We had already incorporated a 50% probability of roughly $5 billion in 2031 sales for lecanemab (profits split equally with partner Eisai), and with this data, we've increased that probability to 90%. We expect accelerated approval of the drug in January 2023, with full approval and strong reimbursement from private payers and Medicare by the end of 2023. Biogen’s neurology-focused portfolio and pipeline continue to support a wide economic moat.