XPeng’s Cautious Q3 Outlook To Depress Share Price; Sentiment To Improve in 2023 With New Models

XPeng delivered in-line second-quarter revenue which is close to the high end of company’s guidance. While management’s cautious outlook for the third-quarter vehicle delivery is likely to weigh on share price performance in the near term, we expect strong growth momentum to return in 2023 with full-year contribution of the new G9 sport utility vehicle and two additional launches. We reduce our fair value estimate to USD 33 per ADS (HKD 130 per share) from USD 40 (HKD 157). Our fair value implies a forward 2023 price/sales ratio of 2.8 times.