Raising Our Valuation of Heineken After Strong First Half but Risks Loom

Heineken reported impressive first-half results, with volume growth above our expectations, and we are raising our fair value estimate to EUR 90 per share from EUR 84. Although we expect growth tailwinds to fade in the second half of the year, we have raised our near-term forecasts slightly on the back of Heineken’s very strong recovery from the COVID-19 lockdowns in many of its markets. Although we continue to like Heineken’s competitive positioning, the stock looks fully priced to us at 18 times 2023 earnings as at the close of business on Aug. 1.