Peer Marina Bay Sands' Strong Q2 Signals Upbeat Outlook for Genting Singapore; Raise FVE to SGD 0.92

We expect Genting Singapore to report strong second-quarter growth on Aug. 12, and raise our fair value estimate to SGD 0.92 from SGD 0.90, to reflect a more upbeat outlook for Singapore's gaming sector. Sector recovery is ahead of our expectations, as the pent-up demand for the casino experience from Southeast Asian countries—particularly Malaysia and Indonesia—has quickly responded to the eased restrictions. This was evidenced by peer Marina Bay Sands, or MBS’, strong second-quarter results—luck-adjusted EBITDA returned to 71% of 2019’s levels, which significantly exceeded the market expectation of 60%. With tourism traffic and airline capacity continuing to recover, we expect Singapore casinos to extend the strong growth momentum in the second half of 2022. We lift our full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates by 24% and 20%, respectively, to SGD 1.9 billion and SGD 855 million. These represent 78% and 70% of 2019 levels, respectively, up from 63% and 60% in our earlier forecasts.