Volume Stabilizes in Q4 for Altria, but IQOS on Hold for a Year

Altria reported fourth-quarter results that were close to our forecasts, and we are retaining our $52 fair value estimate. 2022 earnings per share guidance of $4.79-$4.93 implies modest upside to our current estimates, although the pace of the share-repurchase program appears to account for most of this. With Altria now trading very close to our fair value estimate, we are not convinced the repurchase program will create much value for shareholders. A more significant long-term value driver, in our view, is Altria's ability to market IQOS in the U.S., and we were slightly disappointed by the announcement that Altria does not expect to commercialize the heated tobacco product in 2022.