Status Quo Likely to Be Maintained on U.S. Health Insurance and Tax Rates; Some MCO FVEs Increased

After Sen. Joe Manchin (D-VA) announced opposition to the Build Back Better bill, we do not expect Congress to enact policies that will significantly increase the insured rate in the U.S. beyond recent measures. While we view this development as mildly negative operationally for medical services firms, positively, those concerns appear likely to be at least offset in our fair value estimates by a reversal of our assumption that the U.S. corporate tax rate would rise and recent cash flows. However, maintaining the status quo in the U.S. healthcare system could keep ESG risks alive for medical service firms in the long run.