Medibank’s Moat Is Attracting New Policyholders; FVE Increased to AUD 3.10

We increase our Medibank fair value estimate by 7% to AUD 3.10 on more positive policyholder growth assumptions. We are not increasing our assumption of the size of the market, simply that Medibank can take more share. We now assume Medibank can grow policyholders around 3% per year out to fiscal 2025, compared with around 2% previously. With the market estimated to grow at 1% per year, this reflects our expectation that Medibank’s market share edges up to 30% by fiscal 2025 from an estimated 27.2% currently.