GEA Raises Floor on Medium-Term Guidance, but Our Forecasts Remain More Optimistic

GEA's 2020 results and updated guidance show meaningful gains from the restructuring program through margin expansion on a divisional and group level. The shares look attractive versus our EUR 33 fair value estimate, and our wide moat rating is intact. 2020 organic revenue declined 2.6%, in line with the midpoint of guidance on our forecasts. The 2020 EBITDA margin of 11.5% was actually in line with guidance for the lower end of 2022 margin previously given. Management's restructuring program is going well, with EUR 40 million in savings in 2020 and more to come next year. As a result, EBITDA was modestly stronger than our forecast at EUR 532 million versus the already raised guidance of greater than EUR 500 million.