17 Scary Numbers From the First Quarter
Returns might have been impressive in the first quarter, but there were plenty of other discomforting numbers during the first three months of the year.
Commentary
Investors opening up their first-quarter brokerage statements might not find anything too scary. The market posted impressive gains in the first part of 2012. But that doesn't mean there weren't plenty of disconcerting numbers out there. Here are 17 that jumped out at me.
21%: Yield of the new 10-year Greek bonds. It seems that even after the massive write-down in debt, the market remains incredibly skeptical that Greece isn't going to have to go back to the bailout well again.
-0.4%: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimate for gross domestic product growth in Germany, France, and Italy in the first quarter of 2012. Not the kind of robust growth the core of the eurozone needs to power through the crisis.
5.4 Million: The number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks and more) persons in February, little changed from the previous month. The longer this number remains high, the more likely it is that much of this unemployment is structural in nature and not related to cyclical economic factors. That could spell high unemployment for some time.
2 Years: The amount of time, at current job-growth rates, needed to regain all of the 8.8 million private-sector jobs lost in the Great Recession.
50%: The unemployment rate of Spaniards under age 25.
60%: The increase in BlackBerry maker Research in Motion's (RIMM) inventory levels from the previous quarter even after a $267 million write-off. BlackBerry devices are literally spoiling on the shelves instead of getting into the hands of consumers.
8.25%: Percent decline in Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) share price in the first quarter. New CEO Meg Whitman has yet to convince investors that she can stop the firm's slide. The stock is off more than 40% during the last 12 months.
$3.93: Average price per gallon of regular gasoline in the United States, according to AAA, at the end of quarter, up more than 5% from just a month ago.
4: Month low that the HSBC China flash purchasing managers' index hit in March. The declines in everything from new orders to employment stoked fears that China's explosive growth was poised to slow.
0.07%: Yield on three-month U.S. Treasury bill. And extending duration doesn't help add much more yield. The 30-year bond is yielding just 3.27%.
1.88%: Dividend yield on the S&P 500, well below the mean of 4.33%. There just aren't any good places to find relatively safe yield today.
1.08: Median price/fair value ratio for the real estate sector. Real estate is now the most overvalued sector as investors pile in searching for income.
1.6%: Percent decline in new-home sales in February. Despite economists' hopes for a rebound, new-home sales remain in the basement. The lack of construction jobs related to housing remains a drag on the economy.
3.9%: Percent decline in housing prices according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city composite home price index. Home prices are now back to 2003 levels.
218: Days until the 2012 presidential election. That means 218 days of breathless news coverage and 218 days of unusual uncertainty about future tax rates and fiscal policy.
432 Million: Number of monthly active Facebook users--out of 800 million total--who use a mobile device to visit the social-network website.
0: Number of ad dollars brought in to Facebook via its mobile apps.
What are the scariest numbers you saw this quarter?