Woodside: Heartening Progress on Development Projects

Our AUD 45 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside WDS stands. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producers reported lower-than-expected third-quarter production and price achievement though we read no long-term implication from the fact. Rather we are heartened by reported progress on development projects.

Shenzi North in the United States achieved its first production in September 2023, ahead of the 2024 target, and the Scarborough/Pluto Train 2 LNG project in Western Australia was 46% complete at the end of the period, versus 38% at the end of June 2023. The Sangomar project in Senegal is 90% finished, while the Trion field development plan has been approved by the Mexican regulator. Progress reinforces confidence in our projection for Woodside to increase group production by around 20% to around 225 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2027. Scarborough/Pluto Train 2 is the most important element in that target, adding over 35mmboe, scheduled for first production in 2026.

A strong operating result from Pluto LNG helped Woodside deliver an 8% increase in third-quarter production to 47.8mmboe, following the completion of maintenance activities. While up, this was still about 5% below our expectations, and offset by a 5% decline in average price achievement to USD 60.20 per boe. We consequently reduce our 2023 EPS and DPS forecasts by 11% and 8% to AUD 2.34 and AUD 1.95, respectively. The dividend equates to a handy 5.3% fully franked yield at the current share price. Woodside narrowed 2023 production guidance to 183-188mmboe from 180-190mmboe. Our new target is 186mmboe, down from the high end of prior guidance.

Woodside shares are more than double AUD 17.50 October 2020 lows, but at around AUD 37 remain materially undervalued in 4-star territory. Cost-effective delivery of Scarborough/Pluto T2 is a key catalyst for price appreciation.