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PT Goto Gojek Tokopedia Tbk GOTO

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Company Report

GoTo Earnings: Losses Narrow Significantly After Sale of E-Commerce Unit, but New Strategy Untested

We maintain our fair value estimate for GoTo of IDR 66 after it reported first-quarter 2024 revenue of IDR 4.1 trillion, compared with our estimate of IDR 2.6 trillion. The beat was due to a change in GoTo’s revenue recognition using the principal rather than agent model, meaning that revenue is recognized more on a gross basis rather than the previously used net. Recurring operating losses narrowed to IDR 942 billion from IDR 4.04 trillion a year ago following the sale of Tokopedia, as the e-commerce unit had suffered significant losses. In the future, we expect growth of the on-demand and financial services businesses to dictate GoTo’s valuation.

Price vs Fair Value

GOTO is trading at a 700% premium.
Price
IDR 66.00
Fair Value
IDR 96.00
Uncertainty
Very High
1-Star Price
IDR 982.90
5-Star Price
IDR 98.00
Economic Moat
Gvxys
Capital Allocation
Nhzjphrg

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Indonesian e-commerce is estimated to grow 17%-20% in the next two years, according to the central bank of Indonesia.

Bears

Indonesian e-commerce is overcrowded, which may force some competitors to downsize or restructure their businesses.

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
Day Range
52-Week Range
Bid/Ask
/
Market Cap
Volume/Avg
/

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
Price/Sales
4.53
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Dividend Yield (Forward)
Total Yield

Company Profile

GoTo is an Indonesian ecosystem that combines e-commerce, ride-hailing, delivery, and financial services under one app. The company operates primarily in Indonesia and is the product of a merger between Gojek and Tokopedia in May 2021, but recently divested the e-commerce business into a combined entity with TikTok Indonesia in 2024. Looking ahead, we expect the on-demand service to account for the majority of revenue while its financial services begin to ramp. Prior to the deconsolidation, 82% of nonfinancial services gross transactional value came from e-commerce, and the firm will begin to expand into financial services such as providing loans and buy now, pay later programs. The company competes with Grab in the ride-hailing and delivery business, and Sea and Lazada for e-commerce.
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Stock Style Box
Large Growth
Total Number of Employees
4,356

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
919.908.97
Price/Book Value
2.422.341.40
Price/Sales
4.535.881.54
Price/Cash Flow
7.92
Price/Earnings
GOTO
GRAB
BABA

Financial Strength

Metric
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
Quick Ratio
3.053.741.71
Current Ratio
3.163.901.80
Interest Coverage
−210.90−5.7093.02
Quick Ratio
GOTO
GRAB
BABA

Profitability

Metric
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
Return on Assets (Normalized)
−7.59%1.03%8.98%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
−10.04%1.39%15.96%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
−8.85%0.01%12.33%
Return on Assets
GOTO
GRAB
BABA
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