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Li Auto Inc Ordinary Shares - Class A 02015

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Stock XHKG Rating as of
HKD 80.25 +2.00 (2.56%)
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Company Report

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Li Auto Earnings: Profit Missed on Lower Vehicle Margin and Higher Expenses

Vincent Sun

Li Auto’s first-quarter revenue was in line with Refinitiv consensus, but net profit missed expectations. Vehicle margin of 19% staged a small year-over-year decline due to the negative impact of price promotions despite a larger delivery volume. Vehicle delivery guidance also missed market expectations, with disappointing sales of the Mega, the firm's first pure battery electric vehicle, or BEV. We cut our 2023-26 revenue and profit estimates to reflect lower volume and margin assumptions. We reduce our fair value estimate to USD 37.50 per ADS (HKD 147.40 per share) from USD 51.00 (HKD 198.20), which implies a forward 2024 price/sales ratio of 2 times and price/earnings of 42 times.

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Price vs Fair Value

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02015 is trading within a range we consider fairly valued.
Price
HKD 78.25
Fair Value
HKD 144.90
Uncertainty
Very High
1-Star Price
HKD 689.98
5-Star Price
HKD 18.80
Economic Moat
Kvqn
Capital Allocation
Rzwldthl

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Li Auto’s strong product capacity, targeting family car users and focusing on the mid- to large-size SUV segment, will ensure the success of its future models, including but not limited to extended range electric vehicles, or EREVs.

Bears

Li Auto’s range-extension vehicles will face increasing pressure as the industry moves to pure electric models, while the company lacks track record in pure electric cars.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
HKD 78.25
Day Range
HKD 78.10–80.40
52-Week Range
HKD 76.80–185.50
Bid/Ask
HKD 80.25 / HKD 80.30
Market Cap
HKD 158.95 Bil
Volume/Avg
5.2 Mil / 13.9 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
13.75
Price/Sales
1.22
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
—
Dividend Yield (Forward)
—
Total Yield
—

Company Profile

Li Auto is a leading Chinese NEV manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart NEVs. The company started volume production of its first model Li One in November 2019. The model is a six-seater, large, premium plug-in electric SUV equipped with a range extension system and advanced smart vehicle solutions. It sold over 376,000 NEVs in 2023, accounting for about 4% of China's passenger new energy vehicle market. Beyond Li One, the company expands its product line, including both BEVs and PHEVs, to target a broader consumer base.
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Auto Manufacturers
Stock Style Box
Large Growth
Total Number of Employees
31,591
Website
https://www.lixiang.com

Competitors

Valuation

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Metric
02015
XPEV
TSLA
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
 13.75—63.64
Price/Book Value
 2.421.688.61
Price/Sales
 1.221.686.40
Price/Cash Flow
 ——42.20
Price/Earnings
02015
XPEV
TSLA

Financial Strength

Metric
02015
XPEV
TSLA
Quick Ratio
 1.310.921.13
Current Ratio
 1.531.501.73
Interest Coverage
 91.05−36.0458.10
Quick Ratio
02015
XPEV
TSLA

Profitability

Metric
02015
XPEV
TSLA
Return on Assets (Normalized)
 9.81%−11.72%9.74%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
 22.15%−25.81%16.96%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
 13.91%−20.47%13.43%
Return on Assets
02015
XPEV
TSLA
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