West Fraser Earnings: Weak Housing Markets Weigh Heavily on Wood Product Demand

West Fraser WFG reported third-quarter results that came with few surprises as the company continues to navigate softening lumber demand and lower prices. Net sales declined over 18% year over year as all four primary segments posted declines, with the pulp and paper business faring worst in the group. Wood product markets have experienced little respite from housing market pressures as lower housing starts and higher interest rates constrain wood product demand. That said, the strength in West Fraser’s North America EWP business led to a $185 million consolidated operating profit, the first quarterly profit for the company in a year. Nevertheless, we’ve decreased our fair value estimate for New York Stock Exchange to $89 from $92 due to lower near-term revenue in our forecast but increased our fair value estimate for Toronto Stock Exchange-listed shares to CAD 123 from CAD 121 per share due to an increase in the USD/CAD exchange rate.

West Fraser’s North America EWP business was the bright spot in the quarter as net sales fell roughly 3% but segment operating margins reached 28.5%. While this pales compared with heights reached during peak demand in 2021, this is a significant jump from the 18.0% margin it reported in the third quarter of last year. This was largely attributable to robust OSB pricing during the quarter. Despite weak residential construction and a slowing housing market, the North America EWP business held up due to solid OSB demand in the region.

The lumber segment continued to struggle amid lower demand and lackluster pricing. Weak new residential construction continues to weigh on the segment and there has been little sign of improvement. Higher interest rates have frozen the housing market, with many opting to stay in their current home and renters opting to wait to purchase. This has severely affected demand for lumber used in new residential construction, which accounts for a material portion of West Fraser’s lumber business.