GlobalFoundries Earnings: Visibility on Recovery Improves, but Long-Term Expectations Still Lofty

We cut our fair value estimate of GlobalFoundries, or GF, to $42 from $48 after shifting the bulk of automotive and industrial recovery to 2025 and 2026, which led to a pronounced drop in our 2024 to 2026 revenue and EPS forecasts. Our midcycle forecasts are tapered to a smaller extent due to later recovery and ramp-up expectations of new sites in Singapore and the US. We view GF as overvalued since the stock trades at a higher multiple than wide-moat TSMC and prices in expectations that are unlikely to materialize.