Bellway Earnings: Improving Sales Rate Instills Confidence

Bellway’s first-half fiscal 2024 result provided us with little surprise. Bellway confirmed the delivery of 4,092 homes and EBIT of GBP 139.9 million in the first half, as announced by the no-moat homebuilder in early February 2024. Bellway remains on track to deliver against its guidance for 7,500 home completions in fiscal 2024. Consequently, our fiscal 2024 estimates and our GBX 3,750 fair value estimate are unchanged. Encouragingly, Bellway reported further improvement in the recent sales activity, with the homebuilder’s weekly private reservation rate rising to 0.67 per active sales outlet in the six weeks since Feb. 1, up from 0.56 in the prior corresponding period and 0.59 in January 2024.