Autodesk Earnings: Solid Results, With Early Renewal Strength and Strong Profitability

We raise our fair value estimate for wide-moat Autodesk to $275 per share, from $247, after the company reported strong results for its fiscal fourth quarter. Both revenue and earnings per share exceeded both our expectations, as well as the top end of guidance ranges. The outlook was similarly ahead of our model for fiscal 2025 guidance, which is partly driven by a new, more direct sales process. As a result, we have increased our estimates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 for both revenue and profitability. We remain impressed with Autodesk’s resilience in a challenging environment—strength in enterprise renewals was once again a highlight, and construction remains solid. In the aftermarket, shares are trading near our new fair value estimate, leading us to conclude that shares are fairly valued after a strong run in the stock over the last three months.