Repsol Earnings: Strategic Update Anticipates Big Payouts to Shareholders

With its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings, Repsol updated its strategic plans through 2027. The centerpiece of the update is a commitment to returns of upward of EUR 10 billion to shareholders. While shaking out at 25%-35% of operating cash flow through 2027, still lower than several European peers, it represents a substantial amount relative to Repsol’s market cap of EUR 17 billion. About EUR 5 billion will come from dividends, including a 30% increase in the per-share amount for 2024 and a 3% rise per year thereafter, with the remainder in share repurchases of EUR 2 billion-EUR 5 billion, depending on market conditions. We see the higher range as achievable based on current oil price expectations.