Moderna Earnings: Several Phase 3 Readouts and RSV Launch in 2024 Support Our Fair Value Estimate

Moderna reported $6.8 billion in revenue in 2023, a 64% decrease from 2022, as demand for covid vaccines faded, but we’re maintaining our $227 fair value estimate as we think the firm is well positioned in a steadying covid market, with multiple new launches on tap for the 2024-26 period. Beyond the lower reported revenue, a combination of heavy charges to reduce the firm’s manufacturing footprint, expansion of commercial capabilities, and a growing number of large clinical trials swung the firm to a $4.7 billion net loss in 2023. Moderna has gained significant share in the premium-priced US covid vaccine market, and still retains $13.3 billion in cash to help power two years of heavy investment before we expect the firm to break even in 2026. We think Moderna is on track to generate $4.3 billion in revenue in 2024, slightly ahead of the firm’s $4 billion guidance, given the upcoming RSV launch (we assume $500 million in 2024 RSV sales). Pipeline progression is helping Moderna build an economic moat, although we still see very high uncertainty surrounding its shares. Overall, we think shares look significantly undervalued, as the market is failing to incorporate the value of mRNA technology beyond covid.