Take-Two Earnings: Shifting Release Dates and Pockets of Weakness Could Create Continued Volatility

Take-Two’s fiscal third-quarter results largely met expectations, but the firm’s outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 point to some pockets of weakness amid uncertain timing around new releases. Most critically, management expects fiscal 2025 bookings will come in slightly above $7 billion, down from initial expectations of above $8 billion and revised expectations last quarter of just below $8 billion. The firm stated that the lifetime value of its game portfolio hasn’t changed but expected release dates have shifted out. We may adjust our estimates to reflect weakness in other franchises, which have contributed to the reduced fiscal 2024 outlook, but we don’t expect to significantly change our $165 fair value estimate.