Origin Energy Ltd ORG

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A$10.23 −0.13 (1.25%)

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As of May 29, 2024 6:11am Delayed Price Closed

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Company Report

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Origin Energy: Profit Rebound on Track

Adrian Atkins Apr 30, 2024

Origin Energy is tracking in line with our forecast for a strong rebound in earnings in fiscal 2024, mainly driven by the utility business. We leave our fiscal 2024 forecasts largely unchanged, but recent strength in electricity futures prices and oil prices has led us to lift expectations for fiscal 2025 proportional EBITDA by 10%. Longer-term forecasts are largely unchanged, and we maintain our AUD 9 per share fair value estimate. At current prices, the no-moat firm is fairly valued.

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Price vs Fair Value

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ORG is trading at a 186% premium.

Price

A$10.36

May 28, 2024

Fair Value

A$7.00

Nov 1, 2023

Uncertainty

High

1-Star Price: A$91.72
5-Star Price: A$2.80
Economic Moat: Sjzd
Capital Allocation: Rqhzlkhgg

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The Australia Pacific LNG project is the largest coal seam gas to LNG project in Australia and is generating strong returns in the current high price environment.

Bears

The value of APLNG is highly uncertain, given volatility in the oil price and the relatively high operating leverage.

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News

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Brookfield evaluating potential next steps after Origin Energy shareholders reject buyout plan

MarketWatch Dec 4, 2023 12:44pm

Trading Information

Previous Close Price: A$10.36
Day Range: A$10.22–10.38
52-Week Range: A$7.77–10.48
Bid/Ask: A$10.21 / A$10.28
Market Cap: A$17.62 Bil
Volume/Avg: 2.4 Mil / 3.9 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized): 11.45
Price/Sales: 1.15
Dividend Yield (Trailing): 4.64%
Dividend Yield (Forward): 5.38%
Total Yield: 4.67%

Company Profile

Origin Energy is a major vertically integrated Australian energy utility. Its energy retailing business is the largest in Australia, with about 4 million customers and a 33% market share. Its portfolio of base-load, intermediate, and peaking electricity plants is one of the largest in the national electricity market, with a capacity of 6,000 megawatts. Origin also operates and owns 27.5% of Australia Pacific LNG, which owns large coal seam gas fields and LNG export facilities in Queensland.

Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
Stock Style Box: Large Value
Total Number of Employees: 4,979
Website: https://www.originenergy.com.au

Competitors

Valuation

Metric	ORG	GNE	AGL
Price/Earnings (Normalized)	11.45	16.39	22.19
Price/Book Value	1.93	0.92	1.26
Price/Sales	1.15	0.87	0.57
Price/Cash Flow	—	6.85	4.18

Price/Earnings

ORG

GNE

AGL

Financial Strength

Metric	ORG	GNE	AGL
Quick Ratio	0.83	0.60	0.80
Current Ratio	1.15	1.15	1.09
Interest Coverage	12.25	1.48	1.63

Quick Ratio

ORG

GNE

AGL

Profitability

Metric	ORG	GNE	AGL
Return on Assets (Normalized)	7.45%	1.69%	3.90%
Return on Equity (Normalized)	16.24%	3.51%	11.11%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)	12.39%	2.27%	7.09%

Return on Assets

ORG

GNE

AGL

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