These stocks' price targets have been cut the most by Wall Street analysts in 2024
By Philip van Doorn
The list includes Tesla and Boeing - along with one stock for which analysts still see 50% upside
In an orderly world, companies would increase revenue and profits steadily to support a continual lifting of earnings estimates and price targets for stocks. But life is never simple. The general trend is for the stock market as a whole to rise along with corporate profits, but there are always exceptions, and these can help investors understand what to avoid - and where new opportunities may lie.
Last week we looked back at how the favorite stocks among analysts who work for brokerage firms had performed over the past five years. It turned out that the brokers had fared pretty well.
Today we will look at current consensus price targets for stocks among analysts polled by FactSet, and we'll list the companies for which the targets have declined the most since the end of last year.
The analysts tend to specialize in particular sectors or industries. They assign the equivalent of buy, hold or sell ratings to stocks, along with price targets that are typically meant to cover the next 12 months.
The ratings have a positive skew. There are relatively few sell or equivalent ratings, in part because analysts might believe bad news for a company is already baked into its share price. It might be too late to drop to a sell rating after bad news has been reported.
Among the S&P 500 SPX, 53% of companies have majority buy ratings, and only one company has majority sell ratings: Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD).
Screening the S&P 500 for price-target cuts
Getting back to what analysts and investors want to see, so far this year consensus price targets have increased for 80% of the S&P 500. If you are wondering how many of these 402 stocks have risen in price this year, the answer is 320, or 80%.
Now let's screen the S&P 500 for the companies whose consensus price targets have declined the most this year through Monday, according to data provided by FactSet:
Company Ticker 2024 Change in consensus price target Consensus price target Consensus price target as of Dec. 31 2024 price change
Humana Inc. HUM -31.9% $397.95 $584.11 -23.2%
Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM -29.0% $64.76 $91.18 -13.7%
Albemarle Corp. ALB -21.7% $144.11 $184.16 -10.6%
Bunge Global SA BG -17.3% $111.70 $134.99 1.3%
Tesla Inc. TSLA -16.9% $200.39 $241.21 -29.5%
Charter Communications Inc. Class A CHTR -16.2% $379.75 $452.98 -26.9%
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A WBD -15.5% $13.21 $15.63 -22.8%
Air Products & Chemicals Inc. APD -14.8% $260.47 $305.65 -11.1%
VF Corp. VFC -12.8% $16.48 $18.90 -18.6%
APA Corp. APA -12.5% $40.65 $46.47 -1.3%
Newmont Corp. NEM -12.2% $43.79 $49.89 -12.0%
EQT Corp. EQT -11.0% $41.68 $46.84 -4.0%
BorgWarner Inc. BWA -10.2% $39.24 $43.69 -2.3%
Boeing Co. BA -10.1% $243.60 $271.11 -27.3%
Paramount Global Class B PARA -9.8% $13.02 $14.44 -20.6%
Nike Inc. Class B NKE -9.4% $112.03 $123.69 -14.7%
Aptiv PLC APTV -9.0% $103.68 $113.96 -12.2%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. CHRW -8.9% $78.53 $86.19 -15.1%
Bristol Myers Squibb Co. BMY -8.4% $56.34 $61.49 3.3%
DuPont de Nemours Inc. DD -7.2% $76.20 $82.13 0.4%
Source: FactSet
For Tesla Inc. (TSLA), the consensus price target has declined 16.9% this year, while the share price has gone down 29.5% through Monday. Sometimes an analyst will stick with a buy rating but lower their price target as a stock falls. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has taken a strong bullish stance for Tesla for a long time, but last week he cut his price target for the stock to $300 from $315 and described a "white-knuckle period" for the company.
There are 51 analysts polled by FactSet who are covering Tesla, and a third of them rate the stock a buy or the equivalent, while 20% rate it a sell or the equivalent, and the rest have neutral ratings on the shares. Ives and two other analysts have $300 price targets for the stock - the highest among the analysts. The consensus price target for Tesla is $200.39, and the stock closed at $175.22 Monday.
News early Tuesday: Tesla's stock slumps as delivery numbers miss the mark by a wide margin
Humana Inc. (HUM) leads the list with the largest consensus-price-target decline among the S&P 500 this year. The company is among several managed-care providers that are focused on Medicare Advantage plans. The problem has been a lower-than-expected payout rate by Medicare. Michael Taylor, the lead portfolio manager for the Simplify Health Care exchange-traded fund PINK, highlighted Cigna Group (CI) as standing out among managed-care companies in the S&P 500, since it mainly provides service through employer-sponsored health-insurance plans.
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) is an interesting case that signals the need for more data. The consensus price target for the stock has declined 15.5% this year, while the share price has fallen 22.8%. The target price of $13.21 is 50% higher than Monday's closing price of $8.79. And 17 of 31 analysts polled by FactSet rate the stock a buy or the equivalent.
Leaving the list in the same order, here is a summary of analysts' opinions about the stocks:
Company Ticker Share buy ratings Share neutral ratings Share sell ratings April 1 price Consensus price target Implied 12-month upside potential Humana Inc. HUM 57% 43% 0% $351.45 $397.95 13% Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. ADM 18% 76% 6% $62.35 $64.76 4% Albemarle Corp. ALB 57% 37% 7% $129.18 $144.11 12% Bunge Global SA BG 67% 33% 0% $102.29 $111.70 9% Tesla Inc. TSLA 33% 47% 20% $175.22 $200.39 14% Charter Communications Inc. Class A CHTR 36% 57% 7% $284.15 $379.75 34% Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A WBD 55% 42% 3% $8.79 $13.21 50% Air Products and Chemicals Inc. APD 57% 39% 4% $243.42 $260.47 7% V.F. Corp. VFC 20% 68% 12% $15.30 $16.48 8% APA Corp. APA 46% 43% 11% $35.43 $40.65 15% Newmont Corp. NEM 61% 30% 9% $36.43 $43.79 20%
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04-06-24 0558ET
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