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Stock Analyst Note

No-moat Saipem’s first-quarter results showed continued progress in improving margins and cash flow, in line with its 2024 targets. After incorporating the results into our model, we leave our EUR 2.50 fair value estimate unchanged. We view shares as slightly undervalued.
Company Report

Saipem offers services in three distinct business lines: asset-based services (handling engineering and construction for offshore oil and wind projects), energy carriers (covering onshore E&C), and offshore drilling.
Stock Analyst Note

No-moat-rated Saipem reported a strong and positive set of 2023 financial results, which sent shares up 13% on Feb. 29. Impressively, the company met or exceeded its 2023 guidance for revenue and EBITDA. Full-year revenue increased to EUR 11.9 billion and full-year adjusted EBITDA increased to EUR 926 million from EUR 9.98 billion and EUR 595 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA margin grew to 7.8% in 2023 from 6.0% in 2022. Additionally, 2024 guidance of EUR 13 billion and a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin surpassed our expectations. We plan to incorporate the results and guidance into our model shortly, but at first glance we expect to maintain our EUR 2.50 fair value estimate.
Company Report

Saipem offers services in three distinct business lines: asset-based services (handling engineering and construction for offshore oil and wind projects), energy carriers (covering onshore E&C), and offshore drilling.
Stock Analyst Note

Saipem continued on a solid growth trajectory in the third quarter as global offshore oil and gas activity continued to expand at a steady clip. Management confirmed the fiscal 2023 guidance it set in February, and we expect the firm will deliver similar performance in 2024. We maintain our no-moat rating and EUR 2.50 fair value estimate following the results.
Stock Analyst Note

Saipem’s second-quarter results reflect the significant acceleration in offshore oil and gas activity around the world. We maintain our no moat rating and EUR 2.50 fair value estimate following the results due to our favorable outlook for Saipem’s performance as the offshore industry commences what will likely be a multiyear upcycle. By our estimate, annual top-line growth will average 6% through 2027 with companywide adjusted EBITDA margins averaging 8% over the same period.
Stock Analyst Note

Saipem posted solid fourth-quarter results as strengthening offshore activity around the world supported healthy demand for the firm’s drilling and engineering & construction (E&C) services. Total 2022 revenue jumped 53% year over year (excluding the onshore drilling segment, divested in the second quarter of 2022), and the firmwide EBITDA margin was 7% compared with negative 17% in 2021. We’ll incorporate the firm’s full financial results shortly, but for now we maintain our fair value estimate of EUR 2. Our no-moat rating and stable moat trend are also unchanged following results.
Stock Analyst Note

We’re resetting Saipem’s fair value estimate to EUR 1.97 after incorporating several corporate actions, culminating with the firm’s recent, and highly dilutive, EUR 2 billion capital increase. In the last few months. This replaces our previous valuation of EUR 63, which was calculated in error during this series of transactions. Saipem recognized a share capital decrease of EUR 1.7 billion, then executed a 21-for-100 reverse share split and a 1-for-10 reverse share split that cumulatively reduced the firm’s total shares outstanding from 1 billion to just 21 million. Then it announced a cash call in which it would attempt to raise $2 billion by issuing 1.974 billion shares at EUR 1.013, which was about one third of the market price at the time.
Stock Analyst Note

Saipem has engaged in several corporate action items over the last few months, including a 21-for-100 reverse stock split in May and a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in June. This week, the firm is proceeding with its EUR 2 billion share capital increase through issuance of 1.974 billion shares. We’re placing the firm under review while we incorporate the impacts of these events on our fair value estimate.
Stock Analyst Note

We're raising Saipem's fair value estimate to EUR 63 from EUR 1.75 to account for the firm's recent reverse stock splits—a 21-for-100 reverse split in May followed by a 1-for-10 reverse split in June. Management indicates the reverse splits are intended to simplify its forthcoming share capital increase, in which Eni, CDP Industria, and several international banks will purchase newly issued shares totaling roughly EUR 2 billion. The issuances are expected to be completed by year-end.

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