Company Reports

We think YTO Express has demonstrated it has more pricing power versus peers STO Express and Yunda Holding, thanks to its continuous efforts to digitalize and standardize the operations of all franchisees. In both the fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of this year, although YTO’s express revenue per parcel dropped significantly less than peers, its sequential market share change outperformed STO and Yunda. We expect to see greater-than-expected market share, revenue, and cost savings as these efforts continue to roll out. These measures include the adoption of customer service and financial system applications by all franchisees.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 78% in 2023 from 76% in 2022. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 87% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2023, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 76% in 2022 from 66% in 2011. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 86% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2022, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 76% in 2022 from 66% in 2011. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 86% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2022, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

We initiate wide-moat SF Holding, or SF, with a fair value estimate of CNY 54.00; narrow-moat ZTO Express with a fair value estimate of USD 14.70 per ADS and HKD 115.00 per share; no-moat Yunda Holding with a fair value estimate of CNY 10.00; no-moat YTO Express with a fair value estimate of CNY 7.80; no-moat STO Express with a fair value estimate of CNY 9.60; no-moat Kerry Logistics Network, or KLN, with a fair value estimate of HKD 11.90; and no-moat JD Logistics, or JDL, with a fair value estimate of HKD 10.70. We think SF and KLN are undervalued; Yunda, STO, and JD Logistics are fairly valued; and ZTO and YTO are overvalued.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 76% in 2022 from 66% in 2011. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 86% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2022, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.