3M Earnings: Yes, We Got a Dividend Cut, but Results Are Finally Starting to Turn the Corner

Narrow-moat-rated 3M released a first-quarter earnings report that exceeded our earnings expectations. Further, full-year 2024 guidance, excluding Solventum, came in better than we hoped. Consequently, we raised our fair value estimate by roughly 6% to $110. While we completely pegged sales during the quarter, adjusted operating margins materially surpassed what we hoped to see, with a difference of roughly 260 basis points to the upside. After reviewing management’s latest guidance, on a like-for-like basis, we’re expecting approximately $0.25 more of earnings per share in the back half of the year (or nearly $140 million of earnings through the remainder of the year). This is a positive result for shareholders because it suggests management’s restructuring efforts are finally taking root, coupled with material carryover benefits. Though the market price rose 5% during the trading day, we think the market still doesn’t fully appreciate the upside in the stock. Shareholders may find it prudent to continue holding the stock for potential capital appreciation.