Booking Holdings Earnings: Bookings Light but January Demand and Network Edge Are Solid

After moving 12% higher year-to-date through Feb. 22, Booking shares traveled down 9% in after-hours trading, as the company’s 16% bookings growth missed our 21% forecast for the fourth quarter. That said, we don’t plan to materially change our $3,450 fair value estimate, as Booking’s January room night growth was above 6% despite facing tough comparisons, instilling confidence in our preprint 8% booking growth forecast for 2024. Also, the company’s network edge, which is the source of our narrow-moat rating, appears intact, providing visibility into this high-single-digit booking growth rate enduring over the intermediate term.