BNP Paribas Is a Stable Performer Through the Cycle

BNP Paribas has reported remarkably consistent earnings over the past decade—in an environment where many of its peers suffered from great earnings volatility. Reported earnings have not grown by much, on average, over this period and return on tangible equity was in the mid- to upper-single-digit range. However, interest rates have been at or below zero for most of the past decade. The return to normal monetary policy in the eurozone will support a structural increase in profitability for BNP Paribas to a low double-digit return on tangible equity. BNP Paribas’ midcycle profitability and earnings growth prospects are broadly in line with the average of the rest of the European banks that we cover, but its stable track record indicates it is a less risky prospect than many of its peers.