Choice Earnings: Mixed Results With Light Revenue, but Solid Unit and EBITDA Growth

Although Choice’s 2023 results and 2024 outlook were near our expectations, we plan to lower our $125 fair value estimate by a low-single-digit percentage, largely due to reducing our average annual revenue per available room, or revPAR, growth forecast to 4% from 5% for 2025-29. This revision is in line with our narrow-moat Wyndham forecast over this time. We continue to see both Choice and Wyndham’s off-interstate portfolios benefiting from U.S. infrastructure spending over the next several years.