Keyera Earnings: Marketing Outperforms Yet Again in 2023, but 2024 Marketing Profits Look to Fall

Keyera’s fourth-quarter results were strong, continuing the multiquarter streak of marketing-led outperformance. Full-year EBITDA was CAD 1.21 billion, above our CAD 1.16 billion forecast, driven by healthy marketing results. The marketing segment turned in a realized margin of CAD 479 million, above prior midpoint guidance of CAD 435 million, given when it released third-quarter earnings, helped by higher volumes and strength in the iso-butane business. Given the immaterial outperformance, we do not expect to change our CAD 34 fair value estimate or no-moat rating.